Is Your Morning Coffee the $44 Trillion Signal You Didn't See Coming?

How a pilot project in Brazil could reshape the financial value of nature

Forests, rivers, wetlands—these aren’t just scenic landscapes. They’re the hidden engines of our global economy, quietly cleaning our air, filtering water, growing our food, and stabilizing the climate. According to an analysis by PwC UK, over half of the world’s GDP—approximately $44 trillion—is moderately or highly dependent on nature and its services.

Yet in the world of finance, they remain invisible—considered “priceless,” but left off balance sheets, credit ratings, and national wealth.

That’s starting to change.

A pilot project on coffee farms in Brazil is testing a bold idea: what if we stop treating nature as a free externality and start valuing it as an economic asset—one that can unlock financing, stabilize markets, and drive resilience across supply chains?

Photo taken by Marlon Schmeiski

From Brazilian Coffee Farms to Global Finance

Imagine a coffee farm in Brazil. Farmers face familiar risks: droughts, erratic weather, and declining yields.

But here’s what’s different. For the first time, the carbon stored in healthy soils, the water retained for crops, and the biodiversity that supports pollination aren’t just “nice to have”—they’re being measured, verified, and turned into bankable assets.

On these farms, something remarkable is happening. Farmers aren’t being paid for how much coffee they grow—but for how well they care for the land.

By planting trees like mango and avocado alongside coffee, restoring soils, and creating living, breathing ecosystems, they’re turning their farms into carbon sinks and water reservoirs.

Here’s the surprising part: they’re not being paid for the extra crops.

They’re being paid for the work their land does for the planet.

🔷 Scientists track the carbon in the soil, the water held by the land, and the species buzzing through the fields.

 🔷 Finance experts translate that data into hard numbers:

• How much risk is reduced?

• How stable are the yields?

• How much carbon is stored?

The result?

Farmers can now unlock loans, access better insurance, and earn premium prices for their coffee—not just for what they grow, but for how they steward the land.

It’s a complete shift in how we value nature—and it’s rewriting the rules of global trade.

Above: (Left to Right) Mr. Ratu Fillimore, Pacific Island Forum - Coordinator; Dr. Gene Leon, Executive Director, Development Bank for Resilient Prosperity; Mr. Eric Maine, President of Kinesis Money; Ms. Alicia Montalvo, Director of Climate Action & Biodiversity, Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean (CAF); and Dr. Dinah Nieburg, Co-Founder of Blue Green Future. 

The IMF’s Role: Turning Ecosystem Health Into Sovereign Wealth

Here’s where it gets bigger.

Today, when the IMF evaluates a country’s economic health, it looks at GDP, debt, and inflation—but not the forests, wetlands, and ecosystems that stabilize the climate and sustain the economy.

Here’s the catch:

🔷 If a country cuts down a forest and sells the timber, that counts as economic growth.

🔷 But if it keeps the forest standing, that value doesn’t appear anywhere on the balance sheet.

This pilot—and others like it—aim to change that.

By generating verifiable data on ecosystem services (carbon stored, water retained, biodiversity supported), countries can begin reporting nature’s value in Article IV consultations—the IMF’s annual economic review process that shapes credit ratings, debt relief, and access to finance.

The goal?

🔷 Recognize nature as infrastructure.

🔷 Reward countries for protecting ecosystems.

🔷 Lower debt ratios for biodiversity-rich nations.

This is how the Global South flips the script—from being seen as aid recipients to becoming guardians of global stability.

Why This Matters Now

While new economic infrastructures are being developed, the old system is breaking down.

Recent research in Nature and S&P Global estimates that climate-related supply chain disruptions could trigger up to $25 trillion in global economic losses by mid-century.

This risk isn’t evenly distributed: manufacturing-heavy economies—including the U.S., China, and key supply chain hubs—are especially vulnerable, even if they’re far from the initial climate impacts.

You’re already paying these costs through:

🔷 Rising prices and supply chain volatility

🔷 Higher insurance premiums

🔷 Climate-related disruptions

🔷 Regulatory pressure

The question isn’t whether nature will be valued in financial markets—it’s whether your business will help shape the valuation, or scramble to adapt to rules others write.

Every cup of coffee from pilot farms like this is more than just a beverage—it’s a test case for whether nature can be recognized as economic infrastructure.

Some might wonder: Will this make coffee more expensive?

Not necessarily. In fact, you’re already paying for ecosystem loss—through rising food prices, unstable supply chains, and climate shocks.

This model is about risk management: building resilient systems that protect supply chains, stabilize prices, and safeguard communities.

As these models grow, costs can come down—and the value is shared across farmers, businesses, and consumers alike.

The shift is happening.

It’s not just about protecting nature—it’s about unlocking new models of resilience, shared prosperity, and long-term economic stability.

Want to Learn More?

Join us during London Climate Action Week for a private roundtable exploring the future of natural capital, biodiversity, and economic transformation.

This is a unique opportunity to hear directly from leaders driving this work—including the team behind the Brazil pilot—and to discuss how your organization can navigate the coming shifts.